Squatting in the prospectus, seeing the safety of a good doctor (on)
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Ping An’s Chinese and English prospectus, I have learned and discussed with the partners the details of various data. In combination with the data, the actual operation and test products have exceeded 30 hours. Today I decided to start writing deep content. It’s not black, it’s not realistic, it’s not going to write a list of various types of statements, a taste of the media, and it’s not a comprehensive explanation. It’s also interspersed with the Internet medical industry analysis, and readers must criticize and correct me. So many bricks, polish it!
Dr. 2 In April 2015, the article “Peaceful Doctor Evaluation Report and Its Impact on the Ecology of Mobile Medical Industry†was published. After three years have passed, the local tyrant is ready to start harvesting!
From the evaluation of this APP at that time, we can see that the doctor's ambition is very big. It almost covers all the functions of seeking medical consultation and buying medicine APP. It does not engage in lean entrepreneurship and comprehensive overall promotion. It gives me the feeling that " There are mistakes, not let go, one can not be less!
After three years, mobile medical experience has undergone major ups and downs. What is the new movement and direction of Ping An’s doctors along the established “big Mac†track? Combine with the recent prospectus and various data of Ping An Good Doctor, let's dig deeper.
First, the user
As of December 2017, Ping An’s total registered users were 192 million. By the end of 2015, the number of users was only 30 million, that is, more than 130 million in one year in 2016, and the average number of users per month increased. More than 8 million, the peak season of promotion will definitely increase by 10 million months, but look at the average monthly live number (MAU), the average of 2016 is 21 million, assuming the previous low and then high, but the average monthly increase is 10 million It means that the number of old users before the monthly activity is 10 million, and the total relative retention for the whole year is about 12%. In combination with the subsequent reports, more than 700 million marketing and advertising costs, without calculating the manpower and other costs, the average user cost is about 7 yuan, the cost of retaining active users is about 60 yuan, then the proportion of paying users is 1. 9%, about 260,000 people, the total average paid user's acquisition cost is 350-400 yuan, but if you deduct the internal internal drainage and related transactions (or bundled sales), the cost per user for the Internet is over 1000 yuan. ! The average amount of consumption of these users (net of internal connected transactions) is estimated to be a few hundred dollars!
Therefore, through the phenomenon to see the essence, this account counts, you know that the entire Internet medical treatment for doctors and patients in 2016 is difficult, in the absence of local strong support and transportation business, even if there is no such high-profile Internet For the medical platform, it is difficult to get the cost per "paying user" less than 200 yuan. Of course, the gross income cannot reach the size of a few hundred yuan per user of Ping An Doctor (with the annual insurance premium), the average is even one. The hundred yuan (including consultation, drug purchase, telephone and flying knife total average), the average gross profit margin of 30% (assuming that the doctor and the doctor opened), this account is not fair in any case, the scale is not economical! Backed by the safe father, such a large payment party volume did not even have BAT, so Baidu cut the medical department to withdraw first, Tencent Ali's own projects are not ideal, and there is no great market position. Therefore, their investment layout has increased their proportion. How can other startups dare to burn money? !
Ping An’s sudden marketing in 2016, the offline line is relatively frenzied to invest, in fact, directly using the "blockbuster" to shuffle, the Internet medical players are all shocked, most of the buffer capacity is weak Going to the West, and being able to survive is eligible to participate in the final "market competition", which can be said to significantly shorten the time for the industry to reshuffle, which is why the Internet medical care in 2015 was in great difficulty in 16 and 17 years. One of the important reasons (whether financing or business itself) is not like some losers and second-investors say that "the industry is not working, the pseudo-demand is rampant", the industry is still up, only this huge variable bombed the market, causing The game of rapid concentration and market concentration!
Someone said, don’t you raise 500 million dollars? The rich people are more, let Jingwei cast an A round, Sequoia take a B round, and Gaochun gets a C, neither need to find a tiger, DST and Saudi King, do not use Sun Hongbin to rotate a plate, if only these Money can lead the industry, it will be done in minutes, but this is not the case! Because there is money, you can only subsidize it, but the business can't move. The business logic of a good doctor is a lot of fun. It is because of the money and the local tyrant. In fact, this is only a necessary condition, another real The big killer is a massive user and associated resource that can be shaken by the long tail ecology and safety system with integrated payment and the whole industry chain as the core! Because these can be spent on large sums of money, accumulating a large number of users and quickly achieving circular subsidies, and sustainable!
This is why I wrote in the past two years, mentioned in several articles about Ping An's good doctors, "They have a big chance to do it!" And it will accelerate the marketization, scale, branding and platformization of Internet medical treatment, so Dr. 2 and all the players in the industry are struggling, and strive to not fall behind, because you see or disappear, the local tyrants are there, happy!
Because, we continue to look down, 2017 significantly reduced advertising and market costs, but overall, the average MAU is still rising.
Monthly users have risen from 21.8 million in 16 years to an average of 32.9 million in 17 years, and in the context of a 50% slowdown in user growth, since only 17 million new users were added throughout the year, the average monthly new Increased by 5 million. Then this MAU has more relative gold content. There are two possibilities for this. First, the retention rate of new users in 17 years is higher. This is very understandable, because it reduces the large-scale advertising and marketing, and it also reduces the number of Introduced only for subsidized junk users (each platform faces this problem, including BAT), which results in a higher proportion of "true love". The second is to find a way to pull back some of the old users who have lost contact, to use a more comprehensive goods or services, better community or live broadcast, and deeper cooperation with other partners, entered a virtuous cycle.
And the data also found a bit of contradiction and interesting places, I do not know if someone analyzed it? In the first nine months of the 17-year period, the average MAU was 34 million. The total annual average was 32.9 million. According to mathematical calculations, the average MAU was 29.6 million in the last quarter, which means that the monthly activity of users decreased by 12.9%.
However, monthly paying users averaged 800,000 in the first nine months, the pay rate was 2.3%, and the last year was 900,000 monthly, and the payment rate rose to 2.7%, indicating that the monthly paying users averaged in the last quarter. It is 1.2 million, which is 50% higher than the 800,000 in the previous nine months!
I think there may be several reasons for these changes in data. First, after 16 years of huge investment, it is estimated that the subsidy should be greatly reduced from the second quarter of 17 (the number of monthly users may be first to second in 17 years). The peak is reached around the quarter, especially in the last quarter, because the pre-market preparation requires strict control of expenses, which leads to a double-digit decline in the monthly activity. This is also a normal pain. At the same time, due to the reduction of subsidies, some active users have previously received free services, and now they are starting to pay or purchase, so paying users have increased significantly year on year.
Second, in the long period of time after the final listing, it began to focus on strengthening the income assessment KPI. Therefore, the sprint phase and the related parties or implicit related parties have greatly strengthened the business cooperation, and concentratedly signed a number of customers, or a large number of customers at the end of the year. In the case of large-scale purchases, services and commodities were purchased from consumer medical and e-commerce, and the unit price and total consumption amount increased. There may also be disguised or invisible interest transfers, doing some homework for the final valuation of the listing.
There are also two possibilities for superimposing the probability. When a possibility is not seen in the report and the prospectus, it is human nature to dress up the daughter before marriage. There is nothing wrong with it. (Note: The above is just a guess, just a theoretical possibility, it does not represent the actual situation!)
Second, business and products
This is the focus of our analysis and research. The leading companies that can be listed are the vane of the whole industry, especially the comparative analysis with the audited public information, which is very valuable!
The business of Ping An Good Doctor is mainly divided into the following four pieces:
1. Family doctor services, mainly including online consultation, referral registration, hospitalization and secondary treatment
2. Consumer medical care, providing standardized service programs for medical and health institutions to meet user sustainability, preventive and other health-related needs, such as health check, genetic testing and medical beauty.
3. Health malls, medical products such as medicines, health products and medical equipment; fitness products and personal care products, etc.
4. Health management and health interaction, customized health plans, tools and activities, recommend personalized content to users to help maintain a healthy lifestyle.
Here we look at how these businesses are displayed on their main business carrier, Ping An Doctors APP:
Five large functional sections: medical home, doctors, lightning purchases, health, mine.
First, the medical home page:
It has a quick entrance to several sections, including quick consultation with doctors, appointment registration, doctor visit, health management center, one-minute small class, old Chinese medicine online, special service, famous doctors, lightning purchase, information and so on.
1. Quickly ask the doctor: The first step is to conduct intelligent consultation, input information problems, support (voice, text, picture), and distribute the department by the consultation reception. After submitting the question and confirming, the next step will be prompted to select the corresponding question. The department chooses a doctor to choose either a free platform or a doctor on duty, or to pay directly to a doctor in another hospital.
Consult a doctor: The free doctor of Ping An Doctor is limited to 15 minutes. If the doctor does not reply after a long time, the patient will automatically pop up the bullet box to end the consultation. If you do not choose 30s, the doctor will automatically end the consultation.
After the consultation, the doctor will give advice on medication and tips for using medication.
After the consultation, you will have to pay for the consultation again.
After the consultation, the doctor will prescribe the medication, and can dispense the medicine with one button. After that, a consultation evaluation will be issued.
2, select the department to ask the doctor: It is safe and safe doctor's own doctor, each department has free, there are charges, showing whether it is online in real time, if the doctor is not satisfied, the refund can be refunded.
3, find a famous doctor: divided into diseases by disease, according to the hospital to find (actually for the appointment to register the entrance), as well as the international medical treatment center, according to the department to find.
1 Find by disease: After selecting a disease, it will show the encyclopedia of knowledge, recommended doctors, recommended hospitals, related articles, typical cases, etc.
The doctors here are basically charged.
2 According to the hospital to find: is the page of the appointment registration, for the hospital with the source can be registered online in real time.
There are many specialists, private hospitals and some beauty salons in these hospitals. In the case of a combined medical examination, this is the main platform for consumer medical guidance with partners.
Choose a doctor's registration number: including the doctor's profile and scheduling information, etc., the registration here should cooperate with the third-party registration platform such as registered network, interesting doctor, health 160.
3 International Medical Center: Medical services provided by Ping An, to contact foreign medical institutions for relevant critical illness patients.
4 departments: divided into domestic and foreign, you can choose the region, hospital level, according to the conditions of screening, etc. to choose a doctor.
4, old Chinese medicine online, warm winter women, Chinese medicine against influenza
1 Old Chinese Medicine Online for online consultation of Chinese medicine.
2 to do warm winter women and Chinese medicine to prevent influenza are to buy related health products. This should also be one of the main battlefields of e-commerce!
5, health management center: including prevention and treatment of hypertension, pregnancy pregnancy conditioning, professional blood sugar management, eye health experts
It is actually the separate treatment of these four diseases from the doctors section of the disease, which also adds health courses and related medicines.
6. Featured services: including telephone consultation, domestic medical treatment, vaccination and overseas medical treatment
1 telephone consultation: one-click direct access to the doctors of the top three hospitals. I have studied the standard services of Good Doctor Online and Chun Yu Doctor.
2 Domestic medical treatment: provide medical services for medical treatment in other places.
3 Vaccination: Vaccination agencies in various regions may also compete and cooperate with small bean sprouts.
7. I am beautiful: I can buy a beauty package online. This package is not for a beauty agency. After choosing a package, you can choose a support organization.
There are also beauty agencies where third parties are stationed.
Medical Aesthetics Classroom: Video and live broadcasts by doctors in some beauty agencies.
Second, find a doctor: the same as the "home doctor" in the medical home page. Just one more level entry.
Third, lightning purchase drugs:
1. Drugs section: including common medications, winter antifreeze specials, traditional Chinese medicine nourishing specials, specialist medicine specials, kidney strengthening, men's specials, weight loss beauty - women's specials, caring parents - elderly specials, medical equipment special, adult health special, love beautiful love Fashion glasses special, medical check-up packages, etc. The main battlefield of e-commerce described in the prospectus is here!
2. Drugs come from major pharmacies and can be purchased directly online.
3. There is an advertising banner for pharmaceutical companies. Here is the standard business of digital marketing for pharmaceutical companies and health care products manufacturers. The gross profit margin is relatively high.
Fourth, health
Including the health home page, health headlines, health mall three major sections.
1, the health home page includes the entrance to the various functions of the health section, rapid consultation, blood pressure management, insomnia conditioning, lightning purchase medicine, health headaches, step by step gold, live broadcast and so on.
2, health headlines are mainly a variety of health information.
3. Health Mall:
1 Volkswagen e-commerce: including food fresh, small household appliances, beauty care, physiotherapy equipment, health nourishment, maternal and child rearing, home life and other categories.
2 Health services: including medical beauty, health checkups, healthy oral, healthy glasses, genetic testing, overseas medical examinations, health care, etc.
3 Haitao Hall: A store that is mainly engaged in overseas products.
4 Redemption coupons: You can redeem merchandise coupons with the money you get from step by step.
5 Make money in the health mall, share the goods to friends, friends can get a certain amount of commission after purchase.
6 Loan insurance: mainly insurance and loan services.
Five, my
1 including my files, my doctor, my subscription, my friends, my services, etc.
2 Health Gold: According to the number of steps taken daily, you can receive health money, you can redeem goods, etc. This is one of the killing tricks, and also the part of its maximum marketing expenses!
Ping An Good Doctor currently has only one public number and no small program.
The WeChat public account mainly includes: consultation registration, health mall, health headlines
1, the consultation registration: the consultation on the WeChat end of the streamlined, simple problem description and add photos.
2. Appointment registration, health mall and health headlines are basically the same as APP. Relative to the APP is much more succinct, each large section has an independent entrance, while maintaining consistency with the APP, enhancing the user's brand awareness.
Overall product evaluation:
1. The APP is rich in content, smooth in use, and the interactivity of each section is good. The two sections of medical and health are the center. In fact, there are crossovers. The medical homepage and the health homepage respectively gather all the entrances of the small modules. The doctor and the lightning purchase module will be set up to separate the entrance and highlight the key function modules.
2. Ask the doctor: The doctor responds promptly and seriously, especially the guidance of intelligent consultation. The experience is particularly good. At the same time, it can save doctors' time, effectively and accurately match, and greatly improve efficiency. I think this is the key point in Ping An's doctor strategy. One of the most important application scenarios for AI!
3, through health information and live video, marketing activities, guide users to buy goods, especially glasses, seasonal health products and beauty products, as well as beauty and physical examination and other consumer medical import line entry partners.
In this way, we only analyze the source of income from the product, and we do not consider other internal factors.
1. The full-time doctor's medical treatment fee and part-time doctor's medical treatment fee sharing
2, the appointment of registered private specialist hospitals and beauty agencies related charges (remarks that the appointment registration is free, may be in the form of a package annual fee or with offline agencies).
3. International Medical Center: High-end medical service charges.
4. E-commerce: including the division of commodities such as medicines, health products and medical equipment.
5, online beauty package, physical examination package is divided.
6, pharmaceutical marketing advertising.
Regarding financial analysis is also a top priority. I searched for all the details of the public disclosure. I found that Ping An’s financial special regulations did not appear to be “cost capitalization†that was used in some AIP IPOs. "The way, or by investing in a shareholding company, it will shift a lot of costs, just like LeTV, to make long-term investment in the regulation of income and profits. Such a bright and down-to-earth financial report, a textbook-like paradigm, must learn. The next article focuses on in-depth analysis of public financial data and related transactions, so stay tuned!
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